The World Trade Organization has raised its forecast for global trade growth in 2025 but warned that momentum could fade sharply in the following year as economic conditions weaken and tariff pressures mount.
In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released on Tuesday, the WTO projected that world trade volume will expand by 2.4 percent in 2025, a significant improvement from its earlier estimate of 0.9 percent made in August. The organization, however, cut its 2026 forecast drastically to just 0.5 percent, down from a previous 1.8 percent projection, citing an expected cooling in global demand and the full-year impact of higher tariffs.
“Trade growth is expected to slow in 2026 as the global economy cools and as the full impact of higher tariffs is finally felt,” the WTO said.
Trade flows surged in the first half of 2025, climbing 4.9 percent year-on-year, largely driven by front-loaded U.S. imports ahead of tariff hikes and robust consumer spending in major economies. The report also noted that strong demand for artificial intelligence-related products—including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment—was responsible for nearly half of the year’s overall trade expansion.
Asia led this growth, accounting for almost two-thirds of global AI-related trade gains, while the United States contributed about one-fifth. The WTO said the expansion “spanned the digital value chain, from raw silicon to cloud-computing devices,” reflecting the global race to develop and deploy AI technologies.
Despite the strong showing in 2025, the organization cautioned that rising trade restrictions and policy uncertainty remain significant risks. It also forecast a slowdown in global services exports, from 6.8 percent in 2024 to 4.6 percent in 2025 and 4.4 percent in 2026.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala attributed the resilience seen in 2025 to measured national responses to tariff changes and strong trade links among emerging markets. “Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system,” she said, warning that complacency would be costly.
“Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and build a stronger foundation for shared prosperity,” Okonjo-Iweala added.
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World Trade Growth seen Accelerating this Year but Loosing Steam Next, WTO says
The World Trade Organization has raised its forecast for global trade growth in 2025 but warned that momentum could fade sharply in the following
